Overall, the automotive industry remains strong and continues to grow; suppliers are well positioned, but the road ahead is challenging
Current Status of the Automotive Industry - Overview
Source: Oliver Wyman analysis
Seven fundamental trends drive the automotive industry until 2030, enabled and accelerated by digitization, AI and machine learning
The Mighty Seven – Automotive Industry Trends Until 2030
Trend Changing Customer Structure
Source: Oliver Wyman study “Mobility 2040”, Oliver Wyman analysis
With particular vehicle usage patterns and increasing market power, fleet and group-buying customers could change today’s picture of value creation
Changing customer structure – Automotive value chain under attack
Trend E-Mobility
Trend Autonomous vehicles
Source: a16z. NHTSA, SAE, Oliver Wyman analysis
1
Level 2 = Partial automation, where drivers still have to monitor the system at all times but systems takes over control in specific use cases; Level 4 = High automation, i.e. driver is not required during defined use case;
Autonomous driving is still in early stages but is expected to reach full automation levels between 2025 and 2030
Autonomous vehicles – The evolution has already begun
Source: NHTSA, SAE, Oliver Wyman analysis
Trend Human-Machine-Interface (HMI)
Trend Connected Vehicle
Significant shifts in value creation will also happen within the different vehicle systems at a sub-system, module and even component level
Horizontal shifts in automotive value creation until 2030
Compound annual growth rate
Outsourcing from OEMs to suppliers will continue but slow down; in E-Drive, OEMs will gradually build up own competence and rely for ADAS on suppliers
Vertical shifts in automotive value creation until 2030
Driven by advancement of ADAS and autonomous driving (AD)
Emerging markets continue to catch-up and gain around 10 p.p. value creation share by 2030
Regional shifts in automotive value creation until 2030
Driven by the current and emerging trends, new supplier business models are being established along the automotive value chain
Supplier business models 2030
Holistic performance improvement to absorb investment and cost pressure will be required for suppliers and OEMs alike to remain competitive
Impact on Suppliers & OEMs: Many fronts
Source: VDA, Oliver Wyman analysis
